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In the Fourth Assessment Report of the UN-sponsored Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (which shared the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize), Working Group I states that warming is “unequivocal” and it is “very likely” that human activities are responsible for most of the warming of recent decades. The same report says warming to 2100 is “likely” to be 1.1 – 6.4 degrees C. Working Group II says 1.5 – 2.5 degrees C warming could commit 20-30% of known species to extinction (but only assigns this about a 50% chance). So, what is settled? Some projections are well established, some have competing explanations, yet others are speculative. Thus policy is a risk management judgment, just like most other complex socio-technical systems problems.

The number of people in the world is increasing, and they will undoubtedly demand higher standards of living that likely will be fueled by cheap, available energy sources such as coal for electricity generation and petroleum for gas-consuming large automobiles—sources which emit large amounts of green house gases. There is strong consensus that if this is the case, the carbon dioxide content in the atmosphere will double or triple by 2100. Many potentially serious impacts (although not all are negative) are expected. These impacts will be unevenly distributed with the most severe effects being experienced in poorer, warmer places, high mountains and polar regions or in “hurricane alley.” Local, regional, and international actions to put in place both adaptation and mitigation policies are already beginning and much more could be done if there were political will to substantially reduce the magnitude of the risks.

Sponsored by the Dempsey Foundation, the Willamette University Department of Environmental and Earth Sciences and the Willamette University Center for Sustainable Communities.