Priority Indicator #23: Overall Arrest Rate


Total Overall Arrest Rate

Contents: Background Information | Data Tables | Data Charts | Commentary | Download Data 
New: Overall Arrest Rate Data Map (Internet Explorer Users: zoom to full extent for best map quality.)

Background Information

What Does This Indicator Mean?
The overall arrest rate is calculated as the number of arrests in a given place divided by the total population of that place, multiplied by 1,000.  A higher rate of arrests often indicates that there is broader social dysfunction in the community, including high rates of alcohol and drug use and declining economic indicators.

Arrests are reported by the police department or sheriff’s office making the arrest, and not by the residence address of the arrestee, and so these rates will vary greatly as a result of political decisions within a region.  Further, the jurisdictions of law enforcement agencies overlap in many cases, skewing the city-level rates for this measure.

Other Risk Factors or Indicators to Consider
Arrest rates are highly correlated with the levels of drug and alcohol consumption and abuse (particularly among juveniles), spousal and child abuse, unemployment and poverty within a community.  While the direct relationships between these factors is not always clear, when analyzing this indicator, examination of these additional indicators is recommended.  Geographic measures such as population density and proximity to major cities may also be considered.

Political decisions also play a major role in determining this indicator.  Factors such as legislation which provides for stiffer criminal penalties, the ratio of police to population, funding for projects aimed at reducing crime and the existence of programs targeted at reducing alcohol and drug abuse may also affect the rate of arrests.

Limitations of the Data
One limitation of these data is that certain crimes are more likely to lead to arrests than others, and an increased arrest rate may not necessarily reflect a higher crime rate but rather an increase in enforcement.  Also, to the extent that crimes go unreported in a community, the overall arrest rate will be artificially low.  On the other hand, while the number of arrests can be directly correlated with the number of convictions, the two measures are not the same and convictions are generally substantially lower.

These data are reported by the individual law enforcement agencies within a region.  There is no means of verification that a particular agency has reported all arrests for a given time period, though these data are considered highly accurate and reliable.

These data most certainly under report the number of arrests due to reporting procedures. If an individual is arrested on more than one charge (e.g., burglary and theft) only the most serious crime (burglary) is captured in the data collection system. This is a national norm that began in the 1930’s and is considered standard practice as part of the Uniform Crime Reporting process nationwide.

Data Sources

  • Arrest figures are from the Oregon Law Enforcement Data System (LEDS) Oregon Uniform Crime Reporting Program

  • County and state population data are from the US Census Bureau 

  • Population data are from Portland State University Population Research Center

Presentation and Description of the Data

The table below shows the total overall arrest rates in Marion and Polk Counties, and cities within the two counties.  These are rates per 1,000 people.

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001
Oregon 59.0 53.7 54.2 52.5 50.3 50.1
Marion County 53.7 57.1 57.2 54.7 46.3 46.6 45.5
Polk County 51.1 51.6 45.3 41.6 42.1 44.6 42.9
Places in Marion County
Aumsville 65.3 19.0 37.8 44.2 22.3 25.0 23.0
Aurora 10.4 90.6 70.9 27.4 15.8 84.0 69.7
Gervais 44.7 59.6 38.1 40.1 46.4 26.9 20.2
Hubbard 15.6 100.0 132.7 86.3 82.5 19.3 51.8
Keizer 32.3 33.1 28.3 29.2 28.9 36.1 28.8
Mount Angel 123.9 72.2 79.9 64.2 34.9 34.0 39.4
Rural Marion County 34.7 37.9 21.6 20.7 17.8 18.4 21.2
Salem (all) 64.5 65.8 68.6 69.3 57.9 55.4  
Salem (Marion County) 69.6 71.6 74.4 75.8 63.0 60.4 59.9
Silverton 59.5 82.1 84.0 54.2 44.9 58.8 47.0
Stayton 90.5 110.8 100.3 86.1 78.5 73.2 60.2
Turner 21.0 18.8 12.3 5.1 8.0 13.3 4.5
Woodburn 78.7 69.4 83.3 66.7 50.2 44.7 46.5
Places in Polk County
Dallas 60.9 60.0 47.0 60.0 56.2 58.1 69.8
Falls City 123.1 96.8 91.1  
Independence 170.0 143.0 116.8 84.2 84.3 89.5 92.7
Monmouth 41.4 53.1 54.0 43.3 41.6 50.4 61.9
Rural Polk County 37.3 42.1 34.5 22.1 28.3 34.0 35.5
Salem (Polk County) 29.0 28.4 28.3 25.0 22.7 22.0  
Source: Oregon Law Enforcement Data System (LEDS), compiled by Marion-Polk CHIP.  http://www.willamette.edu/publicpolicy/chip

The chart below shows total overall arrest rates per 1,000 people in Marion and Polk Counties and statewide.

The chart below shows total overall arrest rates for cities in Marion and Polk Counties for the years 1995 and 2000.

Commentary

Marion County's total overall arrest rate per 1,000 population was higher than Polk County's for each year between 1995 and 2000.  In general, both counties have experienced a decline in arrest rates in recent years.  In both Marion and Polk Counties the rate increased in 1996 and fell in 1998.  In Marion County the overall arrest rate dropped significantly in 1999 and remained low in 2000.  In Polk County the arrest rate increased slightly in 1999 and 2000.  The statewide overall arrest rate has fallen recently, to a rate of 50.1 arrests per 1,000 people in the year 2000. 

From 1995 through 2000, Mt. Angel, Independence, and Rural Marion County experienced a declining trend in their overall arrest rates.  No community in the area had arrest rates that consistently increased during recent years.

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Overall Juvenile Arrest Rate

Contents: Data Tables | Data Charts | Commentary | Download Data
New: Juvenile Arrests Data Map (Internet Explorer Users: zoom to full extent for best map quality)

The table below shows the overall juvenile arrest rates per 1,000 juveniles in Oregon, Marion and Polk Counties, and places within the two counties.

  1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Oregon 57.1 60.5 57.9 54.3 48.3 45.4
Marion County 57.9 64.8 61.3 61.7 49.7 47.2
Polk County 66.6 71.4 74.5 56.7 51.4 44.7
Places in Marion County
Aumsville 28.4 19.1 34.1 39.5 18.3 22.0
Aurora 0.0 68.8 18.8 0.0 0.0 6.3
Gervais 10.8 34.0 19.1 27.0 26.7 14.5
Hubbard 6.9 30.6 51.5 68.6 45.8 10.5
Keizer 44.5 47.0 42.2 41.9 33.8 46.9
Mt. Angel 87.5 149.7 50.4 15.2 33.2 42.4
Rural Marion County 20.4 28.3 22.3 17.3 14.4 11.2
Salem (all) 79.4 85.9 83.7 91.8 74.4 67.7
Salem (Marion part) 85.2 92.3 89.4 101.0 81.5 73.5
Silverton 89.7 140.1 148.1 68.9 55.7 78.5
Stayton 125.9 136.6 155.5 124.3 113.9 121.6
Turner 34.2 22.3 0.0 3.3 20.5 10.5
Woodburn 76.9 64.2 73.6 44.4 35.1 35.3

Places in Polk County

Dallas 102.1 118.6 84.1 96.3 86.3 61.0
Falls City       211.1 136.1 80.3
Independence 216.8 205.1 167.2 120.7 114.8 104.3
Monmouth 61.7 69.1 93.9 47.6 85.9 122.6
Rural Polk County 44.3 44.0 45.4 25.5 20.9 19.3
Salem (Polk part) 38.6 40.8 42.2 26.8 23.9 26.7
Source: Oregon Law Enforcement Data System (LEDS), compiled by Marion-Polk CHIP.  http://www.willamette.edu/publicpolicy/chip

The chart below shows the juvenile overall arrest rate per 1,000 juveniles.  It gives the total rate in Oregon and Marion and Polk Counties for the years 1995-2000.

The chart below shows the juvenile overall arrest rate for each city in Marion and Polk Counties, as well as the rate for unincorporated parts of the two counties as reported by the county sheriff's offices.  The rates shown are the 1995 and 2000 juvenile overall arrest rates. 

Commentary

The overall juvenile arrest rate in both Marion and Polk Counties has been higher than the statewide rate during each year reported here.

Between 1995-1997, the juvenile overall arrest rate in Polk County was higher than that of Marion County.  The highest rate Polk County experienced was 74.5 arrests per 1,000 juveniles, or a 7.45% arrest rate, which occurred in 1997.  Polk County's rate then dipped below Marion County's rate in 1998, and for the past two years the rates have been relatively similar. 

In the majority of cities in Marion and Polk Counties, the juvenile overall arrest rate was lower in 2000 than in 1995.

Download the Data

Download Data in Microsoft Excel 

Download Data as a Tab Delimited Text File (Windows users: right click on this link, save file, and then open in your favorite spreadsheet; Mac users: click the link and hold for a second or two, then save the file and open it in a spreadsheet)

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This page last updated 28 September 2001