- Willamette
- College of Liberal Arts
- College Colloquium
- Course Offerings
- Do I Dare Disturb the Universe? Choosing to act in an uncertain world.
Course Offerings
Do I Dare Disturb the Universe? Choosing to act in an uncertain world.
Everyday, individuals and organizations are faced with the need to make choices and take action in the face of imperfect, conflicting or confusing information. We cannot know the future, yet we must decide how to dress for the weather and somehow pick a college and major. As a society, our choices are even more momentous: must we ration health care and if so how? what should we do, if anything, about climate change? should we prepare for rare disasters like asteroid collisions? To make good choices, we want to understand cost, risk, confidence, and uncertainty, but these words mean different things to a scientist than to a lawyer or a politician. We will look at how humans approach prediction and decision making in a variety of areas (science, law, management, public policy, health care) and from a wide range of perspectives (statistical, economic, philosophical and psychological). Possible readings include foundational works by authors including David Hume and Thomas Bayes, modern popular reviews by Nate Silver (The Signal and the Noise) and Daniel Kahneman (Thinking, Fast and Slow), and topical articles and media.
Course taught by
Rachel Dewey-Thorsett
Course taught by
Stephen E. Thorsett